Application of Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Method to Design a Drug Inventory Prediction Application in Private Health Units

Main Article Content

Cut Susan Octiva
Uli Wildan Nuryanto
Handry Eldo
Abdul Tahir


This research aims to see how to design a drug supply prediction application using the Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing method. The collection methods used in the research are as follows: observation, interviews. The prototyping system development method includes several important stages in designing research applications. The first stage is communication. After that, the Quick Plan stage. Construction of prototype stages. The final stage, deployment delivery and feedback, is the phase of system use by users. In addition, the team also conducts regular system maintenance to ensure optimal performance. These stages together form an iterative process for developing research applications using the prototyping method. Based on the research results, it was found that the test results for the drugs amoxicillin, cefixime, paracetamol, and CTM showed that the MAPE value was less than 10% for these four drugs, which means that the predictive value has quite high accuracy. So it can be concluded that the Holt Winter Exponential Smoothing algorithm can be well implemented to predict drug supplies.

Article Details

How to Cite
Octiva, C. S., Israkwaty, Nuryanto, U. W., Eldo, H., & Tahir, A. (2024). Application of Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Method to Design a Drug Inventory Prediction Application in Private Health Units. Jurnal Informasi Dan Teknologi, 6(1), 1-6.


[1] Basuki, A. P, “Building a PHP-Based Web with the CodeIgniter Framework,” Yogyakarta: Lokomedia, 2020.
[2] Pahlawansah, H., Octiva, C. S., & Muafiqie, H. (2023). Measurement Analysis of the Level of E-Commerce Adoption Readiness in SMEs Using Technology Readiness Index Method. Jurnal Sistim Informasi dan Teknologi, 193-197.
[3] Sarah, S., Aswita, D., Ainun, N., Maulidar, M., & Azzarkasyi, M. (2022). The development of HOTS-based assessment instruments on educational statistics. International Journal of Trends in Mathematics Education Research, 5(1), 38-43.
[4] Jefriyanto, J., Ainun, N., & Al Ardha, M. A. (2023). Application of Naïve Bayes Classification to Analyze Performance Using Stopwords. Journal of Information System, Technology and Engineering, 1(2), 49-53.
[5] Ainun, N., & Jefriyanto, J. (2023). Development of Kirchoff’s Law Drawing Tools to Improve Student’s Science Skills in Learning Process of Direct Flow Circuits. Journal of Information System, Technology and Engineering, 1(2), 32-37.
[6] Mahdalela, R., Ainun, N., & Roslina, R. (2022, December). An Analysis of Students' Mathematical Communicative Skills in Solving Sets Problems at SMP Negeri 1 Darul Hikma Aceh Jaya. In Proceedings of International Conference on Multidiciplinary Research (Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 70-81).
[7] Suryawati, I., Rahmani, R., & Ainun, N. (2022, November). Students' Mathematical Communication Ability through Blended Learning Model for Elementary School Students in Banda Aceh. In Proceedings of International Conference on Multidiciplinary Research (Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 53-57).
[8] Prasetyo, E, “Datamining Concepts and Applications Using Matlab,” Yogyakarta: Andi, 2022.
[9] Octiva, C. S., Wahyuningsih, S. S., Hakim, M. L., & Hasti, N. (2023). Application of The Speed-Up Robust Features Method To Identify Signature Image Patterns On Single Board Computer. Jurnal Sistim Informasi dan Teknologi, 14-18.
[10] Mardiah, A. (2019). The Influence Of Store Layout, Interior Display, And Human Variable Related To Shopping Orientation At Matahari Basko Grand Mall Padang. Jurnal Ecogen, 2(1), 27-33.
[11] Sudirjo, F., Syamsuri, H., Mardiah, A., Widarman, A., & Novita, Y. (2023). Analysis of The Influence of Customer Perceived Benefit, Ease of Use and Sales Promotion on The Decision to Use Digital Wallets for Shopeepay Customers. Jurnal Sistim Informasi dan Teknologi, 63-68.
[12] Budiarto, B. W., Haes, P. E., Nawarcono, W., Mardiah, A., & Apriyono, T. (2023). The Influence Of E-Customer Satisfaction, E-Service Quality And Sales Promotion On E-Customer Loyalty Of Tokopedia Customers. JEMSI (Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, dan Akuntansi), 9(6), 2472-2479.
[13] Bilgies, A. F., Tawil, M. R., Mardiah, A., & Arief, I. (2023). Analysis of The Influence of Online Consumer Reviews, Seasonal Digital Advertising and Celebrity Endorsers on Repurchase Intention of E-Commerce Consumers. Jurnal Informasi dan Teknologi, 26-32.
[14] Ariawan, J., Tarigan, B. A., Mardiah, A., & Siahaan, F. S. (2023). Analysis of The Influence of Burnout, Job Satisfaction and Organizational Commitment on Turnover Intention of Electronic Manufacturer Employees in Indonesia. JEMSI (Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, dan Akuntansi), 9(5), 2016-2020.
[15] Rizky, S, “Basic Concepts of Software Engineering,” Jakarta: PT. Prestasi Pustaka Karya, 2021.
[16] Susiloningsih, E., Tahir, A., Setiono, A., & Vanda, Y. (2023). The Effectiveness Analysis of the Implementation of Class Active Learning on Students Character in Two Ways Learning Process. Mudir: Jurnal Manajemen Pendidikan, 5(1), 195-199.
[17] Rosadi, D, “Applied Econometrics & Time Series Analysis With Eviews,” Yogyakarta: Andi, 2022.
[18] Mohzana, M., Israwaty, I., Lumingkewas, C. S., Tahir, A., & Arief, I. (2023). The Effectiveness Analysis of Android Based E-Diagnostic Test Development Program to Identify Level of Student’s Misconception. Journal on Education, 6(1), 1363-1368.
[19] Turyadi, I., Zulkifli, Z., Tawil, M. R., Ali, H., & Sadikin, A. (2023). The Role Of Digital Leadership In Organizations To Improve Employee Performance And Business Success. Jurnal Ekonomi, 12(02), 1671-1677.
[20] Suriadi, S., Rafid, M., Zulkifli, Z., Abdurohim, A., & Damirah, D. (2023). The Influence of Organizational Culture, Work Environment and Work Discipline on Job Satisfaction of Teachers at Boarding School. Journal on Education, 5(4), 14777-14781.
[21] Hendriyanto, D., Setiamika, M., & Primadewi, N. (2020). The effect of Ginkgo biloba against ototoxic hearing loss on advanced stage undifferentiated nasopharyngeal carcinoma receiving cisplatin chemotherapy. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NASOPHARYNGEAL CARCINOMA, 2(02), 44-46.
[22] Nurcahyo, V. E., & Hendriyanto, D. (2020). The depression level effect on the QOL of patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. Oto Rhino Laryngologica Indonesiana (ORLI), 50(2), 135-40.
[23] Haddar, G. A. H., Hendriyanto, D. ., Munandar, H. ., Kelibia, M. U. ., & Muhammadiah, M. . (2023). ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PROJECT STEAM-BASED LEARNING MODEL TO IMPROVE STUDENTS’ CRITICAL THINKING SKILLS. Community Development Journal : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat, 4(5), 10519–10525.
[24] Hendriyanto, D., & Helmi, H. Protective role of Nigella sativa oil against cisplatin-induced ototoxicity: a literature review. Journal of the Medical Sciences (Berkala Ilmu Kedokteran), 55(2).
[25] Tanuwijaya, H, “Application of Winter's Exponential Smoothing Method,” 2020.
[26] Suryati, Y. U. Budiman, F. Sutartiah, D. Hadayanti, and L. Judijanto, “Analysis of The Implementation of The Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use Technology and The Delone & Mclean Model to Identify User Satisfaction of The Digital Wallet Application”, jidt, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 104-110, Nov. 2023.
[27] S. Sri Wahyuningsih, M. Ziaul Haq, H. Hamid, S. Hady, and N. Hendrawan, “The Application of Information Technology Architectural Design Using TOGAF Architecture Framework in Restaurant Service Systems”, jidt, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 141-147, Dec. 2023.

Most read articles by the same author(s)